Archive for the ‘Scientific Method’ Category

MY BOOK ‘EXPLORER’ 2025

September 30, 2024

The log. of a journey of discovery to the end of the Universe and even beyond

Is the story of an ordinary man who dug up the rainbow’s end and discovered something far more precious than gold , and that was Wisdom. But nobody believed him – after all they could see he wasn’t a genius. So, when he was very old he wrote down how Wisdom works in the hope that one day all humans could share the recipe. He was fearful that without such wisdom they might well destroy themselves along with much of the natural world which had nurtured them.

In writing, his plan , my plan, was to give a step-by-step account of the journey Illustrating that dauntless curiosity had been the secret, not genius of any kind. And luck of course. He had been one of the tiny crew of the Hubble Space Telescope and so had stumbled upon mysteries which wouldn’t ever let his imagination rest. And that is how eventually he found his rainbow’s end – when he was trying to find something quite else – Hidden Galaxies. What he unearthed enabled him, and perhaps all of us who follow him, to think dozens of times better than we ever could before. I hope readers will find Explorer both an exciting adventure story and a persuasive revelation. That is certainly how the journey felt to the author. It is crafted in sixty very short episodes– entitled as follows:

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE 2024 (1 kiloword) 

1 EXPLORER 1968 (930 words) Journal of a voyage as exciting as Magellan’s

2 OVERNIGHT FAME – BUT…..1969 (11 k-words)

The longest essay, included to show what astronomical observing is really like. It’s the discovery of the Crab Pulsar and the evidence that there is a new form of matter in the Cosmos, one teaspoon of which weighs as much as 200,000 ocean liners . But there’s skulduggery afoot.

3 LOST AMONG THE STARS (1969) (1 kw) I see the Universe clearly for the first time , from a mountaintop in Arizona. Smitten!

4 A REALLY MAD IDEA 1969 (1.7 kw) Are most Galaxies hidden underneath our sky? I become obsessed.

5 HOW FAR AWAY ARE QUASARS? 1972 (2.8 kw)  The huge question.Battling with killer hornets in Australia.

6 AROUSING THE BLOOD. 1973 (2.3 kw) How to design far better telescopes.

7 A RARE MOMENT OF ECSTASY 1975 (1.6 kw) A revelation I will never forget.

8 PROJECT TITANIC 1977 (1.1 kw)

9 INTO SPACE 1977 (1 kw) Beginning to plan The Space Telescope (Hubble).

10 A FALTERING START 1977 ( 2.0 kw) The rows start. They have to.

11 THE INTERNET INVENTS ITSELF 1979 (1.2 kw) In Britain first, not Silicon Valley.

12 THE EXPLORER IN THE LIBRARY 1978 (1.3 kw). Mr Cucumber gives me wings

13 TREASURE CHEST 1979 (700 w) How the gems of Cosmic discovery could all be shared.

14 THE GRAND CHALLENGE 1980 (800 w) How were the biggest scientific discoveries in history actually made? What can we learn from them?

15 GHOSTS IN SPACE 1980 (600 w). You can’t see them but they must be there, Or are they?

16 THE SECRETS OF BIRD FLIGHT

1.6 kw) . How can tiny birds cross oceans? Fascinating and unlikely.

17 TILTING THE UNIVERSE 1982 ( 1.8 kw) What it really looks like. They’d all got it wrong! Surely not?

18 HIDDEN GALAXIES IN THE SEWER 1983 (1.3kw)

19 BIRDS ACROSS THE OCEAN 1985. (900 w) It’s more than magic.

20 HITCHHIKING TO THE STARS. 1988 (800 w) Triumph, but then disaster

21 EINSTEIN AND ME 1987. (1.6 kw) An inspiring but troubled relationship. He was a thief …but a wise man as well. How very strange.

22 THE FIRST “CROUCHING GIANT” 1987 (700w) Beaten to the Pole. But what a wonderful surprise too.

23 WHY WEAKLINGS FAIL 1980’s. (1.9 kw) Character in Science.

24 HIDDEN BY SMOKE 1990 (9.2 kw) While observing at The Cape wisdom leaks down from the sky

25 THE BIG FIX. 1990 (1.3 kw) Helping to mend the Space Telescope. Insight in a glider.

26 STRUCK DUMB 1993. (2.4 kw) The Universe wasn’t meant to look at all like this! What’s going on?

27 IMAGING QUASARS 1994 (1.5 kw) Crown Jewels.

28 HIDDEN GALAXIES AND SPECTRAL GHOSTS 1994 (1.8 kw) Could they be related?

29 OUT OF FAILURE 1992. (1.4 kw) Never give up.

30 FEELING IN THE DARK 1992 (2.4kw) Looking for the Light-switch.

31 OIL TANKER DISASTER & IGNORANCE OFTHE BRITISH ELITE 1996 (4.2 kw) What happens when we cannot think straight.

32 SETTING SAIL 1997 (500 w) To explore the universe for Invisible galaxies.

33 THE SHARPEST EYE 1998 (3.4 kw) Designing a new camera for the Space Telescope.

34 CONFLICT AND CONTROVERSY. 1998 (1.5 kw) Conference rows.

35 HORRORS OF THE DEEP 2000. (1.1 kw) What the hell’s going on?

36 ARECIBO FOLLIES 2000 (1.1 kw) Mad Big Telescope Disease among our rivals.

37 THE SWEETEST SPOT (2002) (600 w) The special place to look; among friends.

38 HUMAN THERMODYNAMICS 2004 (2.7 kw) What everyone needs to know but does not. The Professors have got it hopelessly wrong.

39 RECYCLABLE OIL & PTEROSAUR WINGS 2000 (700w) How we could save the planet

40 EUREKA 2004 (1.4 kw) Applying Information Theory to explore the Cosmos; Revelations.

41 TRIUMPH AT LAST ? (1.4 kw) Could this be it?

42 WITCHCRAFT STATS AND BACK (1.1 kw) Deluded Statisticians.

43 THE AUSTRALIAN FIASCO 2005 (1.4 kw). Not again; surely not.

44 DISASTERS OF PROBABILITY. 2004 (900 w)

45 FIRST DARK GALAXY 2008. (1.1 kw) Unrefutable truths, but implacable enemies.

46 THE BIG SHOOT- OUT IN CARDIFF. 2007 (1.5 kw) Spectacular rows.

47 GREAT SECRETS BEGIN TO EMERGE 2007 (1.8kw) Intimations of a vast discovery.

48 HARD TO BELIEVE 2008 (3.4 kw) But here it is.

49 CRIMINALS IN ASTRONOMY 2008 (2.6 kw) All over the place.

50 LAST MISSION TO HUBBLE & THE BIG PRIZE 2009 (2.0 kw)

51 DETECTIVE’S EQUATION 2010 (2.3 kw) How we can ALL think far better. We must!

52 OCKHAM’S RAZOR – THE BASIS OF WISDOM 2011 (2.5kw)

53 FATAL MISTAKES. 2013 (1.8 kw) How wrong the human race can sometimes be. We’ve got to admit it.

54 ANIMAL WISDOM 2014. (2.6 kw). Smarter than the Ancient Greeks.

55 WAS THERE A BIG BANG? 2014 ( 1 kw) Probably not.

56 GALAXIES – HIDDEN NO MORE. 2017 (0.7 kw) At last!

57 ‘CATEGORICAL INFERENCE’ ,THE BEATING HEART OF THINKING. 2018. ( 3.4 kw)

58 THE SECRET OF HUMAN SUCCESS 2018 (1.8 kw) No it’s more than brains and was invented by Turquoise miners around 1800 BC.

59 ROTTEN REASONING 2018. (4.2 kw) And how to avoid it.

60 DARK MATTERS. 2024 (1.5 kw)

61 MY OWN BLUNDERS

62 THINKING AND PROGRESS Miracles await if we learn to think. But academics can’t teach us because they’ve screwed it all up.

63 WHAT WE DON’T KNOW

64 LAST WORDS

INDEX

64 SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 2024 (600w)

THE PREFACE

If you read. this it should give you some idea of. whether. you want to read on

Here it is updated to Feb 2025

Imagine that as a young explorer  you were the first human to realize that the Earth must be round, and devoting the rest of your life to proving it so. Your contemporaries are divided into two camps; the much larger thinks the idea is preposterous and devise any number of arguments to support their view; the much smaller band of rival explorers want to test  it out but snitch the largest  share of glory for themselves. That is my story ,which I want to share with you here. Except it wasn’t a round Earth in my case but the realization that most of the structures in  Space are invisible to us because our local light levels blind us to their existence. What a lifetime challenge – to overcome the doubters and defeat the jealous rivals. Here I aim to share the ebb and flow of that battle. Could life be any more exciting?

My life has been led at  the very forefront of scientific research. In my 20s I became an astronomer who made some useful discoveries. I was then picked to join the select Hubble Space Telescope crew to explore the universe properly for the very first time: we are still going strong after 35 years. A university appointed me to become a full professor in my 30s  and were enlightened enough to leave me free to do much as I willed . Thereafter for eight months of every year, I roamed the world in search of discovery and adventure. I had become the explorer I had always wanted to be as a  boy. My interests range far beyond  astronomy, and I stumbled upon one or two startling  ideas which I hope will not be lost, because they could benefit all of us on this planet, and not just humans. If at least one of the following four ideas does not intrigue you  then read no further:

  1. According to Einstein scientists advance by using their common sense, but he couldn’t explain how Common Sense Thinking (CST) works. After 40 years of probing I have found out how. 14 -year- olds  could now be taught to use its main tricks: Bayes’ Rule for gambling successfully; The Detectives Equation for deciding wisely; the Principle of Animal Wisdom (PAW) for avoiding fatal mistakes; Ockham’s Razor to avoid wasting time, and Categorical Inference to free CST from mathematics. In the real-world decisions usually have to be reached  on the basis of conflicting evidence. Common Sense Thinking is all about reaching sound decisions in the face  of conflicting evidence. Check it out because, once  you can master CST,  all manner of insights tumble out of the sky.
  2. When we were crossing the Atlantic back in 1968 a  tiny warbler landed aboard  our ship mid-way. It seemed like a miracle to me. How could such a  tiny creature  have flown so far without food or rest?  I  vowed to get to the bottom of animal flight and eventually (it took  10 years)  I did. But that left a  monstrous puzzle, literally monstrous – but also a huge opportunity. My theory proves that no creature weighing more than 12 kg. can fly –  and none can. But in Texas the fossils of Pterosaurs are found with wing-spans in excess of 13 metres and weights of at least 150 kg. They could only have  flown  using blood that could pick up sunlight directly and turn it into energy without using oxygen or exhausting carbon-dioxide . When you think about it that is ‘Recyclable Oil’– endless energy for all , without any disastrous environmental consequences. Why don’t we attempt to synthesise Recyclable Oil (RO), and save the planet, including all those wonderful creatures  now on their way to extinction?

3) How come we can think so much more effectively than our cousin  chimpanzees – who share 98.5% of our genes? Armed with Common Sense one can show it is all about phonetic writing, which was only devised 3,800 years ago by Turquoise miners in the Sinaii peninsula. Without that we cannot put enough evidence together to reach sound conclusions in any but simple situations. Common Sense Thinking plus phonetic writing took us to the  Moon – but why stop there? For instance I have  used them to ask   “What are the roots of Progress?”  and out popped the answer: Curiosity, Honesty, Adaptability, Numeracy, Tolerance, Literacy, Committees and Sustainability [ CHANTLiCOMS for short].  Once one can think straight, and understand  the  roots of Progress, all  manner of  vistas open up – in Philosophy, in History and in Politics for example. One can even draw up a League table of nations defined by their Progressiveness. You might be surprised at some of the placings.

4) But  2,500 years ago scholars in ancient Greece thought they had found the  recipe for Certainty – Deductive Logic. Ever since, scholars have frowned upon Common Sense Thinking  as inferior – precisely because of its Provisional nature. They still frown upon it today –  but of course they are hopelessly wrong. That means they cannot teach our young ones how to think. Thus  most contemporary education is “Baducation”. It is, in Einstein’s words   “Teaching  fish  to climb trees”. How are we going to change this catastrophic state  of affairs?  We could do you know – and fast. The results would be dramatic

But why should  you pay attention to me?  I’m no genius – I don’t even believe in that phenomenon – for which there is no evidence , not in Science anyway. But I have been privileged to spend more time at the very frontier of knowledge than anyone else I know. I was born incorrigibly curious – my exasperated parents dubbed me ‘Mr Why’; I have read  at least 8000 books; and have been ruthlessly selfish with my time, devoting at least three hours  of every day to Thinking, ruminations which are recorded in diaries stretching back 70 years and containing 2 million words. It is not surprising then that  one  or two provocative ideas have turned up. Bugger fame – it’s far too late for that. But it is worth trying to keep the candle of Learning alight in the dark. After all it has flickered  out  before – more than once.

REFERENCES

There are a whole series of coloured images associated with the material. To put them in a book would make it impractically expensive.  So at the end of this book is a section headed SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL with many pointers to extra stuff, particularly to my website mjdisney.org . In the mean time you. can look them up in our parallel Post entitled ‘EXPLORER EXTRAS’. The paperback version of the full book (450 pages) should appear , along with the author’s other books, on AMAZON in mid Feb 2025

Referring to a different essay in this book I write [e22] for essay 22.

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EUREKA

April 7, 2024

Back around 2000 there were huge controversies going on across Astronomy about the design of a new and much more powerful camera for the Hubble Space Telescope. As a member of the tiny team responsible for designing it I decided to look for objective ways of estimating the discovery potential of ANY astronomical instrument, past ,present or future, using Information Theory. Such had never been done before and the results were more than exciting, or so the many many readers of this paper told me me at the time. But it never got published, mainly because journal editors claimed they couldn’t find “anyone broad enough to referee it”. And I was frantically busy on other things, not least designing the new camera (WFC-3) which is still up there working beautifully in orbit, though it could have been more powerful still if Information Theory had had its way. Then when another editor asked for a copy to publish I found I’d bloody lost it. But thanks to a colleague Bob Fosbury inside ESA who found a copy stained with choclatey fingers, and missing the diagrams, the version below is available for anyone interested. Any astronomer trying to raise funds to build an ambitious new instrument, or to squish a project they don’t believe in, might find it useful.

PDF version of file

EUREKADownload

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WHAT IS A SCIENTIST?

August 7, 2022

People are always urging us to “Talk or think more scientifically.” But what do the mean. Do they even know? I doubt if most of them have any idea. So here I have composed a little quiz. If you can answer most of the questions you must be a pretty knowledgeable scientist. But if you, or they, cannot ….

WHO IS A SCIENTIST?

1 Einstein said: “Scientific thinking is a mere refinement of the everyday variety.” What is that main refinement?

2 Who among the following gave the first correct prescription for Hypothesis-testing: Bacon, Galileo, Huyghens, Newton, Pearson, Fisher, Neymann, Jeffreys, de Finetti, Popper, Jaynes ,or none of the above?

3 Evolution is notoriously slow, so how, a mere few thousand years ago, did humans suddenly become far smarter than their chimpanzee cousins with whom they share 98% of their genes?

4 Probability Theory was developed to deal with the games of chance which are CLOSED – i.e. have a finite number of configurations within them. But the real world is OPEN. How then can statisticians apply Probability Theory to open systems?

5 Why does the Normal Distribution turn up so often in Statistics?

6 Huge scientific controversies [E.g. Continental Drift] have hinged on conflicting evidence. How does the Scientific Method resolve such conflicts?

7 Science, indeed thinking in general, is bedevilled by Systematic Errors [e.g. the Earth is flat]. How can we ensure that they do not betray us into taking disastrous, indeed existential decisions?

8 How should one estimate Measurement errors?

9 Precisely why should we be influenced by Ockham’s Razor in choosing between hypotheses?

10 If we don’t know all the hypotheses alternative to H that could explain some evidence E, how could we ever calculate the Probability P(H|E)…. “The Probability of hypothesis H given E” ?

11 Why has Breadth so often proved vital to scientific success?

12 Why don’t we get lessons in Common-sense thinking at school or university? Surely they would be very valuable?

13 Since Induction is the basis of scientific thinking how do scientists overcome Hume’s ‘Classical Problem of Induction?’

15 In what circumstances do some thinkers find Bayes’ Theorem helpful, and why do others disagree?

16 How do thinkers arrive at their value for the Prior probability in Bayes’ theorem?

17 If a new observation is in serious conflict with a scientific theory, in what circumstances would it be sensible to modify that theory by adding a new Free Parameter to it [E.g. ‘Dark Energy’ to Big Bang Cosmology]?

18 Who has given a clear, uncontroversial and complete account of the Scientific Method, and where can one find it?

Almost all the many Posts here on The Scientific Method are under the ‘Thinking’ Category because Thinking is what the SM is about. Try those if you want to find out how it works. This quiz just wouldn’t fit anywhere else.

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RECYCLABLE OIL

November 29, 2020

Imagine a liquid which, if left out in the sun, absorbs energy from it and goes into its ‘Charged’ state. Later when it passes through the engine of your vehicle it is induced to release that solar energy without burning Oxygen, but reverts to its inert “Discharged’ state and is stored in the vehicle’s waste tank. Afterwards, at the refuelling station the inert liquid is exchanged for fresh ‘Charged’ liquid which goes into your fuel tank, and off you go again. The discharged liquids are collected, re-energised in the sun, and then recycled through the whole process; again and again and again. And because no Oxygen is is burned, no Carbon Dioxide is produced to pollute the atmosphere and warm the globe. In other words humankind would be getting all the energy it needs in a convenient form from the Sun , without damaging the planet. We’d have harnessed endlessly Recyclable Oil, or ‘RO’ for short. And why not? If cabbages can turn sunlight into chemical energy why can’t kings? Eating cabbages, burning the Oxygen which the cabbages have produced as a by-product, and then breathing out CO2 doesn’t have to be the only way we can survive. Sunlight is abundant and free. Surely, by taking thought, we can make use of it without preying on cabbages — or their fossils — and mucking up the atmosphere into the bargain? Grudges will say it can’t be done; but then they always do. As Francis Bacon wrote 400 years ago: ” But by far the greatest obstacle to the progress of science and the undertaking of new tasks and provinces therein is found in this — that men despair and think things impossible.”. Anyway I believe there’s evidence that someone succeeded long long ago:

Mind you one could reasonably argue that if RO were feasible then some creature in all the aeons of past Evolution would surely have exploited it already. The fact that none has is pretty convincing evidence against its practicality. Anyway if you do a simple sum you can show there isn’t enough sunlight out there to power a normal animal. Such a solar powered creature would have to be spread out like a blanket to catch enough of it. Surely that rules the idea out?

A slide from a Powerpoint presentation produced by my son Mathias for a talk he gave on our joint behalf at his own university, University College London back in 2005. It more than hints at what is coming next.

Almost, but not quite. I want to convince you that once upon a time there was a solar creature that ruled our skies for over a hundred million years, only to be wiped out in the great meteorite extinction which ended the age of dinosaurs.

Look at the next photo which I took in the Natural History Museum in New York in 2000:

The fossil wing of a gigantic dinosaur excavated in Texas, with behind it the complete skeleton of a much smaller specimen. The shoulder bones in particular look more like those of an ox than a bird. I was flabbergasted when I saw it because the laws of physics simply rule out such a monster from flying. But what else did it do if not fly? Bigger specimens up to 11 meters in span have been excavated since, though none is complete.

When alive the creature would have had a total wingspan of twenty feet or more and weighed around a hundred kilos. When I saw it first my hair literally stood on end. Why? Because a long term interest of mine had been the science of animal flight (principally birds) and I knew at once that the creature hanging from that ceiling could never have flown — not using normal metabolic processes; never, never, never! To stay aloft it could only have used solar power directly (and didn’t its giant wingspread resemble a blanket?).

Science is hard, mainly because there is so much to learn. We overcome that by specialising early, then specialising further again and again, learning more and more about less and less. That is all very well but it does have crippling limitations. To tackle any really ambitious project we have to form teams in order to broaden our individually narrow specialities. But what if nobody on the team is aware that fact X, from an entirely different field, will be the indispensable key to solving our problem? That happens all the time, and as we become increasingly specialised, may become the greatest brake to further progress in research.

Let’s take a famous example. Hans Christian Oersted was an undistinguished Danish scientist employed by his government to look into the hazards of storms at sea. Reading through the logbooks of ships that had survived, he could hardly ignore the frequent reports that during electrical storms the compasses on board went haywire. At the time (1820) nobody knew that Electricity and Magnetism were in any way related — but Oersted could hardly avoid that inference. So he went out and bought a battery (they’d just come on the market) and sure enough he found that modest currents would cause any compass nearby to swing dramatically. He published a brief note ( in Latin) which set laboratories across the world on fire. In particular Faraday and Ampere worked out the details of Electromagnetism, as it came to be called, and the modern world began: motors, dynamos, telegraphy, radio, Relativity, broadcasting, television, the computer — they were all waiting in the wings of history. But to set off that frenzy of invention it took Oersted’s almost accidental recognition that two previously unrelated phenomena were in fact intimately connected.

In my case the the accident was a warbler that landed on our ship during a storm in mid-Atlantic. To me it seemed like a miracle that such a tiny ball of feathers had made it out so far with no opportunity to either feed or rest. Not believing in miracles I set out to find its secret for myself, with no help from the existing literature. It took me ten years to crack the Range problem and a further two to prove that no bird weighing more than 12 kilo’s would ever fly. It could never generate the requisite power. So what was this monster doing hanging above my head in New York? It must have weighed at least a hundred kilograms,. What was more it could never have taken off, or landed safely. So how could it stay forever up in the sky? Solar power seemed to be the only possibility.

So if I am right Recyclable Oil once did exist upon this Earth — Pterodactyl’s Blood — and if it existed once surely we could synthesize it again — and save our planet?

You might suppose that everyone would be excited by such a possibility. Not a bit of it. On the contrary. Why not? It’s that bloody Specialisation once again. Palaentologists know all about pterosaur bones but don’t understand aerodynamics or physiology sufficiently well to convince themselves that pterosaurs couldn’t fly by normal means, while aerodynamicists knew how to design airliners but are not all that interested in dusty old pterosaur bones. Worst of all no one has that combination of knowledge in paleantology, aerodynamics, mathematics, physiology and energy- generation to convince themselves, or anyone else, that RO could be waiting just round the corner, to save us all. I know, because I’ve tried, and so has my son, to convince different audiences both in print and in person. Nobody has so far been able to find anything wrong with our arguments , but then nobody has so far been sufficiently convinced to publish them either

So then I grew desperate and tried to put the truth, as I see it, in a novel called Pterodactyl’s Blood, which is described elsewhere on this site, but which almost nobody has read so far. The facts are:

  • No animal weighing more than 11 kilograms could ever fly because Oxygen powered physiology is too weak to sustain the required power. Period.
  • Yet pterosaur fossils with wingspans of up to 30 feet testify that they indubitably did.
  • But creatures of that size could never have taken off ( running speeds of over 50 mph required) nor landed without crippling themselves. So they must have remained airborne, day and night, throughout their lives.
  • With Oxygen metabolism ruled out the only means of sustaining themselves in perpetual flight was direct solar power. And such was their wing area in proportion to their likely weight that this looks entirely feasible — even with moderate solar efficiencies ( less than 10%).
  • But such a departure from normal zoology would surely leave tell-tale marks in the fossil record. For instance solar powered pterosaurs could not have had feathers. And so on and so on……

What distinguishes honest science from mere speculation is vigorous Hypothesis-Testing. So we subjected the Solar Power Hypothesis to every test we could think of, and it passed. With no reasonable alternative it therefore deserves very serious consideration, especially so since it could , in principle, solve the Global Warming problem.

If you want to find out more about Recyclable Oil there are three possibilities:

Read my novel Pterodactyl’s Blood — its all in there bar the technical calculations. (described under ‘My books’ Category)

Look at the Power Point Presentation my son prepared for a seminar at his university — University College London. You should be able to see it at:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/irg0asowzd5wdqs/disney_pterosaur_2010v2.ppt?dl=0

Or go direct to our rejected science paper ( which may be hard going) at:

https://mjdisney.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ROdraftXV-1.pdf

and see what you can make of it.

As always comments are more than welcome.

PS There are several more posts on this site about Flight, particularly bird flight, even a simple primer on aerodynamics which should enable one to understand where the Range and Power Equations come from. There’s nothing genius about it, but the consequences are dramatic. That warbler for instance. Click on my Tags and Categories.

PSS We were not the first to worry about pterosaurs with such vestigial legs taking off ( see references in our Science paper) but nobody before us realised the Power-problem, which is quite definitive.

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